Singapore Politics

General Elections: Reloaded

I guess everyone just can’t get enough of election news, information and gossips. You are either craving for more, or totally sick of it. Everyday, election speculations hog the headlines of newspapers. And in these past weeks, PAP has been quite active on the ground and in the build-up to GE. Just a short recap on the past month elections major headlines:

1 March 2006 – “Singapore PM Lee says budget not vote-buying scheme”

2 March 2006 – “Singapore Democrat Leader Charged With Contempt Of Court”

3 March 2006 – “Singapore releases electoral boundaries for next general elections”

6 March 2006 – “Opposition May Contest 52 Seats”

6 March 2006 – “Aljunied GRC MP Cynthia Phua asks PAP leadership about ward line-up”

10 March 2006 – “Opposition parties to contest 57 seats in Singapore's next general elections”

13 March 2006 – “PAP to field up to 20 new GE candidates: PM”

14 March 2006 – “Bankrupt Singapore opposition leader ordered to pay up”

15 March 2006 – “Presence of 'Uncle Yap' fuels talk of JBJ-Chee link”

20 March 2006 – “SM Goh tasked to help PAP retake opposition wards”

20 March 2006 – “Steve Chia raises stakes for himself - quit politics if he doesn't win this general election”

23 March 2006 – “PAP introduces first 3 new candidates for upcoming GE”

24 March 2006 – “PAP begins introducing 'new breed' of candidates”

25 March 2006 – “PAP to introduce second group of new candidates on Tuesday”

25 March 2006 – “An 'active supporter of self-renewal', MP Yatiman says he wants to call it a day”

26 March 2006 – “Two women high-fliers seen at ward events”

26 March 2006 – “Jaya to lead East Coast GRC team”

26 March 2006 – “Yeo Cheow Tong says he will step down if asked by PM Lee”

26 March 2006 – “Another possible new candidate for PAP seen at Tampines community event”

27 March 2006 – “Three new faces at PAP walkabouts in 2 places”

27 March 2006 – “Short of candidates? Not now, says NSP”

27 March 2006 – “Lim Hwee Hua moves to Aljunied GRC”

27 March 2006 – “SDA tests Tampines”

27 March 2006 – “Tony Tan to retire from politics – Khaw to take over Sembawang”


As usual, this blog (other than providing information) asks more questions than providing answers. Looking at the month of March, the news reports begins with the “sweeteners” from the Budget, then the introduction of new PAP candidates and most recently, the movements (retirement and reallocation) of Ministers and MPs. Perhaps any journalist reading this might be interested in taking up the following issues.

Which MPs are leaving?
Here is a mathematics question: There are 84 seats in parliament and PM Lee mentioned that they will introduce up to 20 new candidates for the coming GE. So far, only 3 MPs (Dr Tony Tan, Yatiman Yusof and Othman Haron Eusofe) have publicly announced that they will not be standing for the coming GE. Another 2 MPs (Dr Tan Cheng Bock and Dr Wang Kai Yuen) had their wards swallowed up by the GRCs are unlikely to stand. And so, my final question is which are the 15 MPs (minimum, but could be more than 15 MPs) who will step down? Of course, everyone has their own thoughts on the 15 and here is mine.

1) Lee Yock Suan
2) David Lim
3) Cedric Foo
4) Cynthia Phua
5) Tan Soo Khoon
6) Dr Ong Chit Chung
7) Dr John Chen
8) Chew Heng Ching
9) Assoc Prof Low Seow Chay
10) Yeo Guat Kwang
11) Chay Wai Chuen
12) Dr Ong Seh Hong
13) Andy Gan
14) R Ravindran
15) Leong Horn Kee

Notice that I’ve not mentioned any Minister stepping down. Reason is that usually, the PM will not drop the Minister before the elections unless he voluntarily steps down before elections. By dropping the Minister before elections, it might potential cause voting problems for the GRC (since Ministers usually heads the GRCs). After the GE is over, when the PM selects his list of Cabinet Ministers, we will know who is "in" and who is "out". If not, another Cabinet Reshuffling will take place around 1-2 years after the GE to have a renewal of Ministers. The telltale sign is when you have a strong number two anchor Minister in that same GRC. Example: Jurong GRC – Lim Boon Heng with Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Jalan Besar GRC – Dr Lee Boon Yang with Dr Yaacob Ibrahim. If a Minister “retires” there is a least another Minister to carry that GRC. But since they only retire as a Minister but not as a MP, there will not be any by-elections for that GRC. However, this is just a trend and observation. It is not conclusive.

Will we have enough Ministers?
Yes, there is no typo in that question. You might be wondering that Singapore has already more Ministers than we truly needs. Not true. Here is a list of possible Ministers retiring after the GE and reshuffling (again, it is just a prediction, not a conclusion):

1) Dr Lee Boon Yang – Minister for Information, Communication and the Arts
2) Lim Boon Heng – Minister for Prime Minister’s Office
3) Prof S Jayakumar – Deputy Prime Minister
4) Yeo Cheow Tong – Minister for Transport
5) Lee Kuan Yew – Minister Mentor (contentious)

In the present Cabinet, there are 19 full Ministers, 2 Senior Minister of States and 6 Minister of States. At present, there are 14 Ministries, not counting the PMO. After promoting the 2 Senior Minister of States (Dr Balaji Sadasivan and Prof Ho Peng Kee), we still see some vacancies (as you will have some Ministers to second certain Ministries). It is unlikely that any of the present 6 Ministers of State be promoted the full Minister, but some are likely to be promoted to Senior Ministers of State. After the GE, it would be interested to see who will deputize the Prime Minister should DPM Jayakumar retires. The candidates are likely to be George Yeo or Teo Chee Hean. Thus, we are likely to see some new PAP candidates in this election that will jump straight into office similar to GE 2001.

In GE 2001, Khaw Boon Wan, Raymond Lim, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Vivian Balakrishnan, Balaji Sadasivan, Ng Eng Hen and Cedric Foo were appointed Senior Minister of States and Minister of States after the elections. This year, we are going to see some candidates going through the same path. My bet is that you will see some candidates with military background (LG Lim Chuan Poh or Major-General Lim Kim Choon) and female candidates jump into the post of Minister of States. And other present MPs (eg: Parliamentary Secretary Dr Maliki) that have done well might be promoted as well.

Are we going to see more Ministers reallocating to other GRCs?
Yes, I think so. So far, only Khaw Boon Wan has confirmed moving to Sembawang GRC. There are some strong GRCs that would not require 2 heavy-weight Ministers in the same GRC like Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (DPM Wong Kan Seng and Dr Ng Eng Hen) and Holland-Bukit Panjang GRC (Lim Swee Say and Dr Vivian Balakrishnan).

In other GRCs, Tharman is seconding Lim Boon Yang and Dr Yaacob Ibrahim is seconding Dr Lee Boon Yang; retirement and replacement is foreseeable. Thus, I would expect the reallocation of Dr Ng and Dr Vivian to be strategic in seconding Cabinet Ministers who are likely to step down. Maybe Dr Ng might join Hong Kah GRC to second Yeo Cheow Tong and Dr Vivian might move to Tanjong Pagar GRC or East Coast GRC.


Coming Soon: “Super Seven minus One” – Report Card of Ministers
Khaw Boon Wan and Tharman Shanmugaratnam were appointed Senior Ministers of State straight after the GE 2001, in their first year of politics. Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, Raymond Lim, Dr Ng Eng Hen, Dr Balaji Sadasivan and Cedric Foo were appointed Ministers of State immediately after their first year of politics as well. With the exception of Cedric Foo, who has resigned from office, the rest of the 6 were either full Cabinet Ministers or Senior Minister of State. Since their appointment until now, what have they done and how have they performed? What were the sticky issues that they have handled not so well and how have they dealt with their public image, grassroots issues and foreign media? All that and more, in the next article.

General Elections Snippets: Myth or Truth?

1) It is true that the PAP government ever discussed with the oppositions over the S$13,500 election deposit per candidate?

During the Remaking Singapore Committee chaired by Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, the topic of changing the election deposit was discussed. Some opposition members were consulted, and among whom was a seasoned politician who was unable to stand for GE due to a defamation suit. In conclusion to the discussion, the opposition figured that the amount should remain the same (not lower, not higher). The reason is that lowering the deposit will lead more 3-way fights and would reduce the share of votes in the opposition camps. This might result in the opposition losing their GE deposit if their votes are lower than certain percentage. Increasing the amounts would lead to difficulties in contesting for 6-member GRCs. Thus, that senior opposition supported the figure of S$13,500.

2) It is true that video recording and uploading political rallies online (sgrally.com) are against the law?

According to the controversial Section 33 of the Films Act, the making, distribution and exhibition of "party political films", are subjected to a fine not exceeding $100,000 or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 2 years. The Act further defines a "party political film" as a film;

(a) which is an advertisement made by or on behalf of any political party in Singapore or any body whose objects relate wholly or mainly to politics in Singapore, or any branch of such party or body; or ;

(b) which is made by any person and directed towards any political end in Singapore
Exception are, however, made for films "made solely for the purpose of reporting of current events", or informing or educating persons on the procedures and polling times of elections or referenda.

Note: One of the Minister of State (who is also a MP in a SMC) made a short video on his constituency and featured the PAP insignia, he was asked to destroy the entire batch of VCDs. Of course, he did so. This is one example which the PAP applied the law on themselves too.

However, the usage of internet as a medium for this Act is unclear. But there is an unspoken mitigation to this. Should a person upload election rallies into a blog with local domains such as “www.sgrally.blogspot.com”, the person is traceable and liable to the Films Act. However, it the website is a worldwide domain such as “www.sgrally.com” or “www.sgrally.org”, the Act is unenforceable even though it contravenes with it. The reason is that dotcoms are hosted overseas in countries such as USA, technically, it is untraceable. Even if Singapore Authorities knew who the person is, enforcing the law to him would be difficult due to the cross-judiciary with another country. Thus, this law is expected to be reviewed and possibly modified, after the elections (considering that there isn’t sufficient time to read the law in parliament from now to elections date).

3) It is true that J.B. Jeyaratnam has sufficient money to clear his bankruptcy and stand for elections?

JBJ stated that he has arranged for a court hearing session scheduled on Tuesday, 14 March 2006 (now adjourned to 28 March at the request of JBJ), to clear his bankruptcy charges. Few days ago, he announced to Straits Times that he has finally got enough money, S$600,000, to clear the bankruptcy charges as well as to stand in a 6-member ward in the coming GE. If he is true on this, it would suggest that he has at least S$681,000 to clear his debts as well as stand for a 6-member GRC (notwithstanding the money needed for campaign process). Is he calling a bluff, met a rich guy or has he struck TOTO? The question is: if he has the money, where did his new found wealth came from?

Not implying any conclusions (make your own judgment on this issue), allow me to bring you back to 12 January 2006, Raffles City Convention Centre. George Soros was in town discussing on the issue of Open Society and Its Challenges. During the forum, he mentioned that “Singapore does not qualify as an open society.” Without mentioning names, Soros referred to a local politician who he said was “in trouble in Singapore because he has been sued for libel and he's been bankrupt and would not be able to stand for parliament.” Soros is founder and chairman of the Open Society Institute, a network of philanthropic organizations active in more than 50 countries. This institute funds and promotes democratic governance and human rights activities. Apparently, on the same day of the forum, J.B. Jeyaratnam was spotted outside the convention centre selling his books. Once again, I would like to stress that it is a possibility but not a conclusion.

A lot of skeptics have doubts on whether will Singapore’s judiciary delay processing JBJ’s case or process the case at normal pace (in which is likely and normally takes weeks or months). In short, will JBJ’s case be processed in time for the Elections? From a friend in the judiciary, I gathered that if JBJ has the money to clear his bankruptcy, the judiciary is likely to expedite the case to clear it before the elections. Two reasons for this: Firstly, the judiciary has been much maligned by the foreign press and media on the treatment of opposition members. The last thing they need is a judiciary controversy to explode in their faces. This is the LHL’s first GE as the Prime Minister and would not want any controversy to say that he is fearful of challenges or win it unfairly. This leads to the second reason: So far, all the past controversies (eg: NKF, Casino) have subsided and would not want to have a judiciary controversy on JBJ to throw their plans off course. Singaporeans’ perception of fairness has increased very much over the years. Should they play the judiciary card on JBJ’s case, Singaporeans will react strongly against the PAP even though they might not support JBJ. This will lead to another NKF-like controversy and aftermath. PM and his Ministers knows this and will not be forcing out JBJ unfairly.


4) Will Prime Minister’s ward (Ang Mo Kio GRC) be contested?

Sylvia Lim, Chairman of Workers' Party, says: “The four GRCs we have named, we may not go to all the four as we are still deciding which are our priorities - that is the likely scenario.” This is in reference to Aljunied GRC, East Coast GRC, Ang Mo Kio GRC and Sembawang GRC. The Workers’ Party is adopting the wait-and-see attitude on J.B. Jeyaratnam’s bankruptcy case. Should JBJ be able to stand, his former party might encourage him to contest in Ang Mo Kio GRC. Two reasons for this:

1) JBJ did fairly well in the battle of Cheng San GRC in 1997 with 45% of the votes against PAP’s Lee Yock Suan. Considering that PAP rolled in the “big guns”, with the likes of Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Chok Tong, Lee Hsien Loong and Tony Tan, JBJ still managed 44,132 votes. The Cheng San GRC of those days is absorbed mainly by Ang Mo Kio GRC and partly by Aljunied GRC as well as Pasir Ris-Ponggol GRC. Contesting in his old battleground might yield him a good number of votes.

2) JBJ is 81 years old and he knows that he doesn’t have many years left in him. This is likely to be his last chance to enter the parliament. Thus, he has to solve his inner dilemma of whether to contest in a ward (weak GRC or weak SMC) that is likely to give him a good chance of entering parliament or should he aim for the maximum publicity by challenging the PM’s GRC. Given his age, he might want to go out with a bang and challenge the son of the man who sued him. Maybe he is not so concern with entering parliament but more of generating publicity and a statement to the public and to the world. Time (meaning his age) is not on his side, he has to make the maximum impact in the shortest time. This was one of the reasons why he contested in Cheng San GRC in 1997 when, during then, most would consider it as a strong ward. Today, what better way to return to politics by keeping the PM on his toes?

5) Will Elections be held in March or April? Do the MPs and Ministers know of the date?

Many speculated that GE will be at the March school holidays but it won’t. Reason being, that the Queen Elizabeth is coming to Singapore for an official visit on 16-18 March 2006. It wouldn’t be appropriate for Singapore to be without a government during an official visit from such important dignities. Moreover, it is too taxing for the Ministers and Civil Servants to plan both activities concurrently.

3 April was slated to be next parliamentary seating. 1 May is the day where the Progress Package will be active. In other words, May will be the month where “money will be put into the people’s pockets”. The question is whether the “money in the pockets” or “waiting for money to be in the pockets” is more favourable to PAP. I would choose the latter. If you noticed, most of the Ministers are not assigned to overseas visits from late March to late-April. This is, however, not a directive from the PM, but the Ministers themselves trying not to be away too often, in case of elections being called.

It is often said that Ministers and MPs knew ahead of when the GE date will be. From my sources, this is not that case. Not even the Cabinet Ministers know of the actual date of the GE. As if one person (Minister) knew, it will spread fairly quickly to other MPs and soon, the population. Other than the Prime Minister himself, perhaps only the inner circle would know the rough date. This might include MM, SM, and the two DPMs. DPM Wong Kan Seng, is likely to be one of the first few to know of the expected date of the GE as not only is he the DPM and 1st Asst Secretary General, he is also the Chairman of the PAP HQ Executive Committee. Thus, he is the main person coordinating the logistics, equipment and stuff needed to prepare for the elections. But for the other Ministers and MP, they are kept in the dark on the dates.

As you all might have noticed, the physical outlook of this blog has changed. Unfortunately for you all, the author remains the same, aka me! Yes, it is still that same old Thrasymachus, balding and writing articles that never ends. Unlike the coming General Elections, this blog is still democratic (for the moment) and all views are welcomed. Feel free to voice your opinions on the outlook of the blog or any issues. Should you miss the old outlook, here is a screenshot to ease your "pain".

There are some outstanding comments (eg: Elfred and Amatu) which I've yet to reply to. In my defense, I've been extremely busy with some stuff. In the coming weeks, I'll be away and out of town (not away and standing for G. Elections, if you are wondering!). Nonetheless, I'll still be receiving comments that will be directed to my email. If you feel like cursing me or asking me anything, just drop a mail at singaporegovt@singapore.com. Cheers!