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Saturday, July 02, 2005 

General Elections – Who is Going Where?
Part I

My past issues have touched briefly on the General Elections. Maybe this article can focus on my prediction on who is going where.

ANG MO KIO GRC (166,644 electorates)
Current MPs:
Balaji Sadasivan (Stay)
Inderjit Singh (Posted Elsewhere)
Lee Hsien Loong (Stay)
Seng Han Thong (Stay)
Tan Boon Wan (Stay)
Wee Siew Kim (Leave)

Comments:
Traditionally, observers always say that Prime Minister’s ward will be challenged. This is to keep him busy and keep him on his toes. By challenging the PM, oppositions can effectively keep him in his ward and not travel to other GRCs to campaign. Should the PM’s GRC garner less than 65%, it is considered as a loss (and loss of face).

However, since the establishment of GRC format, oppositions are unlikely to challenge the PM due to resource constraints. Potentially, the challenger may lose their election deposit if their results are less than 20% (if memory serve me well, it should be 20%). With this factor, resource maybe better spend on GRCs with higher chance of winning.

Among these candidates, there might be some changes. Inderjit Singh, maybe transferred to other GRCs with lesser minority representation and Wee Siew Kim, may be replaced with a new candidate. Wee is the MP for Jalan Kayu and is a growing population. It is likely that the boundary for Jalan Kayu will be carved out for other GRCs. Other than that, I don’t expect much change. Dr Balaji is likely to remain as he is quite popular in Cheng San and is unlikely to be promoted before the elections (usually there won’t be two full Ministers in a GRC when contesting). Dr Tan is the second MP to Teck Ghee division (PM Lee’s ward) when PM is not around, so it is unlikely he will leave. Seng Han Thong is very popular among the Chinese speaking and is holding keep positions in Singapore Press Holdings, so he will be an asset to AMK GRC.

Verdict: Uncontested


ALJUNIED GRC (125,115)

Current MPs:
Ong Seh Hong (Stay)
Phua Cynthia (Leave)
Yeo Guat Kwang (Posted Elsewhere)
George Yong-Boon Yeo (Stay)
Zainul Abidin Rasheed (Stay)

Comments:
This ward will definitely be challenged by Worker’s Party (WP). My sources said that the WP are having residents’ visits and campaigning every night. Other than George Yeo and Zainul Abidin, the rest are considerably weak. Ong Seh Hong, Cynthia Phua and Yeo Guat Kwang are neither those very “grassroots” people (unlike Ong Ah Heng or Tan Cheng Bock) nor charismatic figures. George Yeo, Minister for Foreign Affairs, is constantly traveling overseas and is unable to spend too much time on grassroots functions. Hence, he might not be as close to the residents compared to Low Thia Khiang from WP.

Thus, PAP is faced with two dilemmas. One, transfer George Yeo to other GRCs and play safe, but this will invite criticism of him shying away from election battle. For a Minister tipped to be a future DPM, he has to face the battle. Two, keep George Yeo in the GRC and face election battles but transfer “grassroots MPs”, such as Ong Ah Heng or Wang Kai Yuen, to Aljunied.

There might be some boundary changes and transfer some electorates to Tampiness or Pasir Ris-Pungol GRC, where they are much stronger. I think this will be one of the focal election battle ground for this coming elections.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win 60%)

AYER RAJAH SMC (18,475)

Current MP:
Tan Cheng Bock (Retire)

Comments:
Tan Cheng Bock is widely regarded as Goh Chok Tong’s ears and eyes. Former classmate to SM Goh and is quite critical of PM Lee in the past. He is one of the oldest MP is the last elections and won it by the largest margin. Hugely popular figure in his constituency but for this election, he will retire and we will see a new candidate. The candidate should be an existing MP since this is a SMC and will be contested. If PAP sends a totally new candidate, it means that they might be allowing one more opposition into the parliament. What we might see is Sitoh Yi Pin (who lost to Chiam See Tong) contesting this ward.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win by 65% with new candidate)

BISHAN-TOA PAYOH (114,621)

Current MPs:
Davinder Singh (Stay)
Leong Horn Kee (Stay)
Ng Eng Hen (Posted Elsewhere)
Wong Kan Seng (Stay)
Zainudin Nordin (Stay)

Comments:
We will see some movement within this GRC in terms of MPs but it will not be contested by the oppositions. There are two Ministers in the form of Ng Eng Hen and Wong Kan Seng. Wong Kan Seng, soon to be DPM, will definitely continue in his stronghold, Bishan. That leaves Ng Eng Hen. Thus, Dr Ng will be going to other GRCs that the Ministers are retiring (likely to be Sembawang and Jalan Besar). His division is just at the borders of Potong Pasir, opposition territory, and the new candidate will have a task of winning the “neighbours” over.

The rest of the candidates will stay as Nordin and Leong Horn Kee are very popular in the grassroots and Davinder, famous lawyer of PAP, is a capable speaker.

Verdict: Uncontested

BUKIT TIMAH SMC (26,951)

Current MP:
Wang Kai Yuen (Stay)

Comments:
Every SMC will be contested and Wang is likely to continue as well. He is another popular MP and very “grassroots” man. The last elections, he garnered thrice the number of votes of the total of both challengers’ vote combine. Though he is getting old, he is likely to contest in this one.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win 70%)

CHUA CHU KANG SMC (24,863)

Current MP:
Low Seow Chay (Stay)

Comments:
Low Seow Chay faced opposition Steve Chia during the last elections and won by about quite a good margin. Likely to continue in his ward but Steve Chia might move to other district to contest. Chua Chu Kang, is a division with younger electorates, Steve Chia might wish to tap on his relevance to their generation and contest. But his reputation already took a beating with his “maid photo” scandal. PAP may not mind losing this ward as he has shown in parliament to raise some good points but not threaten the PAP too much. Since Chiam See Tong is retiring soon, Chia will be a “soft” opposition to take over.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win 65%)

EAST COAST GRC (144,012)

Current MPs:
Abdullah Tarmugi (Stay)
Chew Heng Ching (Stay)
Lee Yock Suan (Retire)
Lim Siang Keat Raymond (Stay)
S Jayakumar (Stay but retire after elections)
Tan Soo Khoon (Posted Elsewhere)

Comments:
This is a very strong and unique line up for PAP in the last elections. You have a DPM, a newly-promoted Minister, an ex-Minister, a Speaker of Parliament, an ex-Speaker of Parliament and a Deputy Speaker of Parliament. If any opposition had contested in this GRC during the last election, it would be pure madness and giving the election deposit to the government.

But this coming election, it will be different. Lee Yock Suan will definitely be stepping down and so will DPM Jayakumar. But DPM Jayakumar is likely to contest in this GRC as the DPM as until now, he has made no indication of stepping down. However, don’t be surprise to see him step down just before or after elections as the title “DPM” was a political gift to him as a reward for his contributions. It is always nice to retire as a DPM. Raymond Lim will be the holding Minister for this coming election and if Tarmugi doesn’t contest for Presidential Election he will remain in the same GRC. Likely, a Junior Minister (Minister of States) will be introduced to this GRC.

Opposition will not win this GRC and might even lose their deposit if they contest here. But if there is a lot of movement and changes in MPs, they might reconsider. East Coast has always been an upper-middle class area with not much problems with social issues. So there will be little grounds for opposition to fight on.

Verdict: Uncontested

HOLLAND-BUKIT PANJANG (118,834)

Current MPs:
Gan Kim Yong (Stay)
Lim Swee Say (Posted Elsewhere)
David Lim Tik En (Leave)
Teo Ho Pin (Stay)
Vivian Balakrishnan (Stay)

Comments:
Another very strong lineup of MPs and Ministers. However, since there are two Ministers in the GRC, they might channel either Lim Swee Say or Vivian to other GRCs. I think Teo Ho Pin, Mayor of North West CDC, might be promoted to Minister of State. Vivian, who is hugely popular with the younger generation, might be the anchor Minister for this GRC while Lim Swee Say move to up North to take over DPM Tan’s Sembawang. David Lim, former Acting Minister and now CEO of NOL, is likely to leave. After the 2001 elections, he quit his position as Acting Minister and joined NOL as Group CEO and President. He is not a MP that is grassroots oriented and if he is not a Minister, he is unlikely to have any interest to stay on as MP unless he is related to his job. But I think he will leave.

Opposition might not challenge this GRC. However, the land area of this GRC is too large. Thus it is likely to shrink for this GE.

Verdict: Uncontested

HONG KAH GRC (129,073)

Current MPs:
Ahmad Khalis Abdul Ghani (Stay)
Ang Mong Seng (Stay)
John Chen (Stay)
Amy Khor Lean Suan (Stay)
Yeo Cheow Tong (Stay)

Comments:
Opposition will challenge this GRC as they did in the last elections. SDP sent an unknown team and garner 24,513 votes! Yeo Cheow Tong, Minister of Transport, isn’t the most popular of Ministers with his continual support for transport operators than to the commuters. Some suggest that he might be stepping down as Minister (as he is a “SM Goh’s” men & is unpopularity and inability to tackle the SIA pilot union case) but I think he will still continue on.

We might see an introduction of a Minister of State in this GRC or the promotion of Amy Khor to Minister of State. Ang Mong Seng, is a “grassroots man” and quite a popular figure. That will give them a slight edge over the opposition. This should be one of the focal election battle grounds if Yeo Cheow Tong continues. If I’m the opposition, I’ll send my strongest team less the secretary-general to contest for this ward. I think SDP will do that.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win by 55% vote and oppositions make further in roads)

HOUGANG SMC (23,320)

Current MP:
Low Thia Khiang (WP) (Stay)

Comments:
PAP will let him win this one by sending Eric Low again. Low Thia Khiang is campaigning, almost every night, within Hougang and at Aljunied. He should win this one with a slim but convincing margin. According to source, WP has been quite successful in getting people to join the WP. Quite unlikely that PAP will send any strong candidates there as they still want some opposition in parliament. No opposition = no democracy.

Verdict: Contested (WP to win 54% votes)

JALAN BESAR GRC (100,268)

Current MPs:
Heng Chee How (Stay)
Lee Boon Yang (Retire)
Loh Meng See (Leave)
Lily Tirtasana Neo (Stay)
Yaacob Bin Ibrahim (Stay)

Comments:
Lee Boon Yang is likely to step down as Minister and MP. I’m 90% sure of his retirement, judging from his reduction in security officers around him. His MICA portfolio is well-taken over by Dr Balaji and his public appearance has also reduced.

Last elections, this GRC was contested and won around 60% of the votes. I think some of the full Ministers will be transfer here and Yaacob, also a Minister will stay, as he is a minority representation for the GRC. If no heavy weights are transferred here, this GRC will be contested. Jalan Besar is an aging population GRC and they might transfer some senior figures into this GRC.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win 60%)

JOO CHIAT SMC (21,745)

Current MP:
Chan Soo Sen (Stay)

Comments:
This ward was contested by an Independent Candidate and Chan Soo Sen won it by quite a convincing margin of about 75%. Chan is one of the Minister of State that was not promoted during the last round of Cabinet Reshuffle. He is more of a grassroots MP than a Minister in the political sense. He has great appeal to the Chinese population there and will continue to contest this seat.

As I said, all SMCs will be contested but I guess hope that it will not be an independent candidate but from either WP or SDP. Independent candidates are like “paid candidates” contesting for the sake of competition and not for elections. Maybe that is why they are not too bothered when they lose their deposits. Ever wonder why? ;)

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win 70%)

JURONG GRC (115,113)

Current MPs:
Yu-Foo Yee Shoon (Stay)
Halimah Bte Yacob (Stay)
Lim Boon Heng (Stay but relinquish Ministerial Position)
Ong Chit Chung (Leave)
Shanmugaratnam Tharman (Stay)

Comments:
This was the focal battle ground in the 2001 elections. And in my opinion, they won by such a large margin only because Dr Chee, SDP, shot themselves in the foot when he shouted and heckled former-PM Goh. Tharman was their “target” during then due to his “leaking” of MAS secrets. Lim Boon Heng, Minister for PMO, seems to be on his way out as a Minister. He stated that he will be standing in the coming elections but the question is that would he stand as a Minister or just a MP. Answer lays with PM not him. He is widely regarded as a “Goh Chok Tong man” and with the change of PM and his reduction in portfolios, would he be a surplus in the Cabinet? I think so, especially when Lim Swee Say is going to take over as the Secretary General of NTUC. If he relinquishes his Ministerial position, Tharman will be the anchor Minister for this GRC. I think this is one GRC that the opposition will contest in.

Both Halimah and Mdm Yu-Foo are quite grassroots-involved and has a good based of support. Thus they will continue in this GRC. Ong Chit Chung has been in this GRC for quite some time but very low profile. He might just move on and be replaced by younger candidates.

Verdict: Contested (PAP to win by 60% votes)


Next Week: General Elections Part II
With predictions for Marine Parade, Potong Pasir, Tanjong Pagar…
etc

I would thought Hong Kah GRC is a good target for the opposition, given the ERP and Public transport fare increases.

Is Mr Yeo the transport minister when the NEL line ran into problems when it 1st started to operate?

Yup, he was the one that was involved in NEL, Buangkok Station, first bus fare increase in 2002...

Hahaha... Wonder which opposition would take him on. Could it be SDP? However SDP don't seem to have much crediblity among Singaporeans...

Dear Thrasymachus,

You got a technical error in your post. The election deposits will be lost when the candidates could not garner more than one eigth of the total valid votes. It is somewhere around 12.5% or 13% of total votes cast, depending on the number of spoilt votes.

Goh Meng Seng
singapore

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Prior to that election, the truth is that not many, if any at all, really bothered about what 'leaking' accident... in fact, very few people ever knew/heard of their MPs in Jurong.

Jurong was, and is still, a pretty juicy GRC. It was, however, quite true that it was Dr Chee's own give-away. And he might have regretted it as the most unforgettable experience cos Jurong was ready to fall at that very election, and that was seemingly the last chance for SDP.

It's best SDP doesn't try Jurong this coming election, cos it's harder for SDP than the other parties to win.

West Coast GRC... The deciding factor is the generation. If voters mainly younger, opposition's chance increased sustaintially...

Andy is probably quite right... :D

Another trouble-spot is at Queenstown, and the deciding factor... guess for yourselves.

I am quite interested to observe this election. Hope all parties will give their best. :D

Hi Elfred

I am just as interested in the coming elections as well. Perhaps there are too many interesting dynamics just to be covered in 7 campaigning days. :P

Cheers!
T

Problematic era... Hope there will be a good show. But what after? Things would probably remains problematic... :P

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Pleaselah,when am I,as a resident of that Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC,will see dis GRC contesting?????I've been waiting years for dis......

I think in my opinion,Dr Chee Soon Juan of the SDP may be made for a much better opponent for my fave minister who would be the next PM,Mr Wong Kan Seng...Besides,the Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC has been in walkovers since 1997...This is where I stay,until now....
In my knowledge,Mr Wong had won the seat of Kuo Chuan in 1984 against a Barisan Sosialis candidate with only 64%,and then in 1988,his Toa Payoh GRC had been uncontested,along with the Thomson GRC in 1991....I think with this prediction which I think is accurate,it'll give not only him but the others like the current mayor of central CDC and Dr Ng,Education Minister along with some newcomers and especially a potential one like Mr Sitoh to win up against another opposition team...
Eventually,Mrs Josephine Teo may leave the GRC and let Mr Sitoh replace her Toa Payoh East ward to go to Potong Pasir to fight up against the incumbent SDA leader,Mr Chiam...Why?Because,in my visit there,I observed that the Toa Payoh East was being adjoined to the place,and that may be potential for the Bishan-Toa Payoh TC to reclaim it from the opposition if PAP had won it back right after almost 24 years under Mr Chiam's rule.....In my opinion,Mr Chiam has been quite a role model in proving that not only the PAP can serve the Singaporeans and had made quite the right and firm decisions on whatever argued in every parliamentary sessions...Though he's now 70 plus,but he still strive up to survive...Maybe,it'll give a first PAP woman candidate a chance to try to prove him that she is better than him as Potong Pasir has quite an aged population and will she ever promise more elderly and old folks facilities and not even some new facelifts to consider if she's to win it back,thus doing the late MP,Mr Howe Yoon Chong ever proud?To me,Mrs Teo may be the potential key to the super victory of not only the ward but the entire Bishan-Toa Payoh town....
As for the rumours that his wife may enter politics in SDA for the ward,I think it might be some gossip which could have spread up confusion to the PAP supporters and also the SDA activists....I think in the 2011-2012 elections,it'll be quite the most exciting and sensational of all in just about 45 years of independence,with all the issues to consider such as the recent Cabinet changes,the escape of the JI Singapore chief,the ERP increasing charges and issues,the rising housing costs,the symphaetic issues of both Tibet and Myanmar,what does it takes for Singapore to become the first country to host the 2010 Youth Olympic Games,more water development issues to consider,more ageing population issues,etc,etc.....And I think as the Home Affairs Minister,who is also the DPM-PM-in waiting,Mr Wong will be surely to be challenged heavily by Dr Chee,confronting for what consequences if the terrorist leader did not get caught in an instant...
Here are the potential list of the key contests in my place in which had been predicted....:
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC(109628 voters)
PAP-Mr Wong Kan Seng,Dr Ng Eng Hen,Mr Zainuddin Nordin,Mr Hri Kumar Nair and Mr Sitoh Yih Pin
SDP-Dr Chee Soon Juan,Ms Chee Siok Chin,Mr Mohd Isa Abdul Aziz,Mr Christopher Neo Ting Wei and Mr Gandhi Ambalam
To win quite big,the PAP team must get around 70% plus....In my prediction,it will be around 74.6%..At least if the SDP was proven to be too radical and not even credible to kick the PAP out like what it has done in Sembawang in 2006...
Potong Pasir(BTPTC's target-to become BPPTC(Bishan-Potong Pasir TC)if PAP wins it back(15928 voters)
PAP-Mrs Josephine Teo Li Min
SDA-Mr Chiam See Tong
To win back Potong Pasir by quite an ease and close call,the PAP must get at least 54/55/56% as the residents there are getting quite contented with it but most likely to be preferrable to Mr Chiam..At least if Mrs Teo offered some financial aid for the poor and needy,more facilities for the aged and even old folks and even less costly facelift projects on Lorong 8 Toa Payoh estate which was formerly the Kim Keat estate and even Potong Pasir itself....
I hope my predictions will be coming quite true,if I really mean it...If not,please accept my apology,but as a PAP strong supporter,I hope that the PAP may sweep up all the 84 seats in Parliament,either still in Mr Lee Hsien Loong's power or in Mr Wong's new rule if he's to become the next PM as well....

Here are the actual facts for today in regard to the 2011 elections,which has said to be due to commence in around March/April...
-There is indeed a new party to challenge the PAP...The Reform Party,led by JBJ,who may be scheduled to face with LKY in Tanjong Pagar GRC by 2011...
-National Solidarity Party,is actually formerly member of the Singapore Democratic Alliance,which had just break up last year....It did contested personally from 1988 to 1997 elections.....
-Jurong GRC is rumoured to be under fire from the RP for a by-election,shortly after the demise of Dr Ong Chit Chung,one of the MPs..Means that either the NSP,the SDA or the RP may contest in there sooner...
-Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC had been frequented by the SDP...That means that Dr Chee may lead up his team over to confront with the PM-in-waiting in regard to Mas Selamat's escape,right under his homeplace...
-Since Tanjong Pagar will get a fire from the RP,Low Thia Khiang may have then be prepared to face up quite a decisive verdict battle when he'll be challenged by a familiar PAP heavyweight,probably Yeo Guat Kwang for Hougang....
And here are the potential contests in full account:
Aljunied GRC-PAP vs SDA
Is it potential for the SDA to save Mr George Yeo from an almost defeat by the WP like the 2006??Besides,I really don't think the WP should do it again...Possible opponent:Sin Kek Tong of SDA
Ang Mo Kio GRC-PAP vs NSP
Mr Yip Yew Weng,the NSP chairman,had been contesting in Yio Chu Kang when NSP is under the SDA 2 years ago...YCK is adjacent to the GRC,and the NSP had fought up in SMCs of Kebun Baru,Ang Mo Kio and Yio Chu Kang in 1988 and Cheng San GRC in 1991...So is it possible that Mr Yip may challenge PM Lee in AMK soon??Possible opponent:Yip Yew Weng of NSP
-Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC-PAP vs SDP
Indeed,the SDP and Dr Chee had decided to campaign the Tak Boleh Tahan since the May Day in Toa Payoh,and even Bishan North...Sooner after,it'll be coming round to my place and even Thomson for this...Eventually,since the GRC had not been contested since 1997,when it supposed to be with the SPP for the GRC and in 2006 for the WP,this may give Dr Chee to face with DPM Wong for the resposibilities as the HAM for the JI leader escape....Will this also be include Mr Sitoh Yih Pin ,who decide to join the GRC against Dr Chee?Possible opponent:Dr Chee Soon Juan of SDP
East Coast GRC-Uncertain
Raymond Lim,the Transportation Minister may have then replace S Jayakumar,who will be stepping down as DPM,giving DPM Wong a chance to be the next PM after PM Lee....Possibly that East Coast may came under attack by either the WP or RP...
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC-PAP vs WP
Sylvia Lim may possibly challenge against Lim Swee Say,who may be the next Trade and Industry Minister...That will be the Lim-and-Lim tandem if contested well,along with the CYS Minister in regard to the outcomes after Singapore had hosted the first Youth Olympic Games in 2010...Was is confirmed yet??Possible candidate:Sylvia Lim of WP
Hong Kah GRC-PAP vs WP
Mr Yeo Cheow Tong may then step down to give way to Mr Gan Kim Yong,Acting Manpower Minister to lead the GRC,as well as bring over his CCK seat to it...Possible candidate:Yaw Shin Leong of WP
Jurong GRC-PAP vs NSP
Indeed the SDA had campaigning in Jurong in 2006...But eventually,this has not be confirmed...And yet,after Dr Ong's death last month,RP may then decided to challenge Mr Lim Boon Heng in a by-election....But eventually,if the NSP may have then come over to repay whatever they had achieved on,would'nt it be quite better for the GRC....Potentially,Steve Chia,its sg may have then lead up the NSP team to fight over....Eat your heart out,RP!!Possible opponent:Steve Chia of NSP
I'll be relating on the rest of the GRCs and the SMCs as well according to my prediction...But if there's some mistakes,I'm intending to apologise.....

The continuation of my full analysis of my prediction for the 2011 elections:
Jalan Besar GRC-Uncertain
If the NSP could do this up right here as it planned,then think agian....Note:SDA did contest twice in 2001 and 2006 and the NSP is part of it before it became solo again last year....Could this be the NSP's planned step to the fight against the PAP governance??If it's possible,then why not instead of NSP,WP should take over???
Marine Parade GRC-PAP vs WP
SM Goh Chok Tong may welcome up the opponents there sooner,and indeed the last time was in 1992 during its by-election,right against Dr Chee's SDP team,Ken Sunn's NSP team,the main opponent for Marine Parade,the SJP and JBJ planned to contest under WP at the time...Pity that the late JBJ had failed to achieve in,and instead the PAP had succesfully trounced over the SJP and NSP despite several firings from Dr Chee,who planned to contest right against the PM-in-waiting in my place in 3 years time....This time round,WP will come in,with possible anchor of Lian Chin Way....NSP and SJP,now under SDA should wait...Possible candidate-Lian Chin Way of WP
Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC-Uncertain
The would-be DPM Teo Chee Hean,who's also the outgoing Defence Minister,may not be possibly receive severe salvoes from the opposition...The SDA did contest in 2006,will the WP???Probably,it's getting too busy for the WP to set up a team right there...It,NSP,SDP or even SDA have to wait....
Sembawang GRC-PAP vs SDA
Khaw Boon Wan,Minister for Health had already received a very big victory over the SDP team led by Dr Chee's sister,over the NKF saga..Now,Arthero Lim's SDA team may give him a chance to fall with over 68% votes...if possible...Meanwhile,WP which planned to contest in may wait until 2015...Possible candidate:Arthero Lim of SDA
Tampines GRC-Uncertain
Hey,isn't that an NSP main battleground since 1988???Besides,it contested too in 1991 but not 1997...Why???Cos,it decided to move somewhere around,thinking that Tampines ain't this matter...Really wonder why the NSP is after Tampines???Besides,it also did,right under the SDA in 2001 and 2006...But I don't think NSP will,or will it???Maybe if WP may contest in instead,would that be much exciting??
Tanjong Pagar GRC-PAP vs RP
Sadly enough to hear JBJ,the main key member of the new Reform Party besides Ng Teck Siong had just died...But,JBJ's been planning for a final showdown against Minister Mentor LKY....So,will that be either Ng or maybe one of his sons if he decided to join the party...Possible candidate:It is confirmed that RP may contest in Tanjong Pagar...But,if it decides for Marine Parade instead,this will be a different story...Well,if Ng Teck Siong had decided to lead a team for that GRC,what will be the outcomes of the next for a few SMCs to infiltrate in????Not sure who's gonna lead in for.....If JBJ stll alive,he'll have to go for it...
West Coast GRC-PAP vs WP
Indeed,Lim Hng Kiang,the next Law Minister,who may decide to cede his Trade and Industry to Lim Swee Say,will go for against WP...AGAIN!!!Besides,he did contest in 1997 against a WP team too...Besides,Pasir Panjang is part of it too,perhaps???So,if Dr Poh Lee Guan may fit the bill for this contest,will this be much exciting???Or maybe Dr Tan Bin Seng??Possible candidate:Dr Poh Lee Guan/Tan Bin Seng of WP
Bukit Panjang-PAP vs SDA
The next Manpower Minister and outgoing Mayor for Northwest CDC,Dr Teo Ho Pin,who may give chance for Dr Ng for Defence Ministry and Mr Gan for Education...His first contest against SDP may score him quite a lot,but will he please give chance to Assoc.Prof Ho Peng Kee for Nee Soon East...Meanwhile,he could contest again with the SDA's Desmond Lim....This may give him around 65 plus...Possible candidate:Desmond Lim of SDA
Chua Chu Kang-With the exception of this SMC,which has been the longest serving SMC,and has not been under a GRC since 1988...So,please give Mr Gan a chance to lead Hong Kah team,thus bringing it over to the GRC after so many years....The same goes to for Potong Pasir in Bishan-Toa Payoh and Hougang for Aljunied if PAP had won both and had kicked out the oppositions successfully....
Hougang-PAP vs WP
And as I said earlier,if the PAP had managed to get the WP chief out of Hougang after 20 years under WP,Hougang will be right directly under Aljunied Town Council...And,if possible,we'll suggest that the PAP heavyweight since 1997,Yeo Guat Kwang,will sacrifice his seat in the GRC to put an end to the rule of the WP...Meanwhile,Eric Low may join the GRC against SDA's Sin Kek Tong...Possible candidate:Yeo Guat Kwang of PAP
Well,I've managed to complete all the GRC outcomes,but only 2 SMCs...So,I guess it's too many for me to write down..I'll handle of it later...

And here's the final installation of my predictions.....
Joo Chiat-PAP vs WP vs RP
Will Chan Soo Sen may stay or replaced by another new candidate???Dr Tan Bin Seng of WP did contest in here by 2006,and Joo Chiat been renamed as SMC in 2001,with an independent candidate...But if the WP will contest again,I'll suggest Brandon Siow as the candidate...And RP's Ng Teck Siong may enjoy campaigning here as the first task to tackle at least 1 SMC...Possible candidate:Brandon Siow of WP/Ng Teck Siong of RP...But if there may be three cornered fight,both also can....
Macpherson-PAP vs NSP/SDA
Since Matthias Yao,outgoing Mayor for Southeast may stay for another last term,and if Tan Lead Shake had not contested in yet,I'll give him a chance for this...Possible candidate:Tan Lead Shake,but I'm not certain whether he's in SDA or NSP???
Nee Soon Central-PAP vs WP
Ong Ah Heng,its MP since 1997,who had got former opposition MP out of the constituency,defeated another former MP in 2001 and had trounced a WP member in 2006...And it may be possible that WP may contest again...This time,Chia Ti Lik may be a suitable one...Besides,Nee Soon Central has not been a GRC part since it was formed in 1988 with Mr Ng Pock Too as the 1st one..Possible candidate:Chia Ti Lik of WP
Nee Soon East-PAP vs SDP
Nee Soon East has been under Sembawang GRC since 1988 and has been out of it since 2001...Twice,Ho Peng Kee did trounced up over the WP,twice against the same man,who'll be in West Coast GRC...This time round,he'll have to like and love his next heaviest and hottest fight of the event...AGAINST THE SDP,if Nee Soon Central did,why not the East???Besides,it's been the largest SMC after Hougang...If Chee Siok Chin could agree to fight in the East,then we'll have to see who's winning,besides her brother's team in Bishan-Toa Payoh...Possible candidate:Chee Siok Chin of SDP(Note:She did lead up a team in a neighbouring GRC in 2006 and had indeed lost...)
Potong Pasir-PAP vs SDA(THE FINAL MATCH??)
So,Mr Chiam See Tong,probably the oldest and longest serving opposition member for the vulnerable Potong Pasir may have to think again....He's been showing some signs that he'll be slackening his own support and that means.....a very good chance for the government to take it back,after almost 30 years when he's triumphant....So,instead of a new male,a ratherly woman candidate may try for the PAP...I suggest Mrs Josephine Teo Li Min may leave the GRC to give way for Mr Sitoh Yih Pin for Bishan-Toa Payoh...That'll give her a very big break to kick Mr Chiam out of Potong Pasir....And if such,Potong Pasir may belongs to Bishan-Toa Payoh Town Council,proved by the fact that it is made out of the town itself,the Lorong 8 Toa Payoh estate and part of former Kim Keat....Possible candidate:Josephine Teo of PAP
Yio Chu Kang-PAP vs NSP vs SDP
It is made out of Ang Mo Kio GRC in 2006,to give way for a new Sengkang West estate...And since 2006,it was renamed as an SMC,but was originated in 1980,with Lau Ping Sum as its original MP,against the UPF in the year and 1984,then the NSP in 1988....And since 1991,it has been contested under the GRC,right until 2006,when the SDA,which is really NSP's Yip Yew Wng had contested...Until now,Seng Han Thong,its current MP,may contest against NSP again,this time,Sebestian Teo....But,the SDP may infiltrate in,with Francis Yong under command....So,there may be a possible three-cornered fight there.....Possible candidate/s:Sebestian Teo of NSP and Francis Yong of SDP...
Well,that's all I can relate on,within my predictions....And with the 2011 elections,will there bound to be some new SMCs coming ahead????Whatever it is,I'm wishing the PAP and the oppositions good luck on the elections,and I hope that PAP shall win back all 84 seats and get the two back to it....That's all and if all my predictions were wrong,I would like to apologise on this matter.....

The latest................
It is absolutely confirmed that there's indeed much changes ahead for the 2011-12 elections........PM Lee had been stated that there may be a cooling off period a day before the GE.....Exact 12 SMCs to be expected.....and some 4-man GRCs,more 5 GRCs and also quite a few 6-man GRCs.........So at least there are exactly 86-88 seats in Parliament this time round....Whilst Chiam himself had confirmed that he will not contest in Potong Pasir and most likely to lead his team especially mine!!!!This is a good sign!!I'll say more soon

Mr Chiam leaves Potong Pasir by 2011-12,leaving his wife as a sole woman SDA member to contest....I suggest a woman PAP candidate rather than Sitoh Yih Pin.......Most likely from my place and if it wins,it'll join up with Bishan-Toa Payoh....SDA may fight with him here.......
Reform Party is now ready...And it looks like Kenneth's now prepared to unleash his fire over Hong Kah,West Coast and also Tanjong Pagar GRC and also Joo Chiat,blablabla don't know what????
No time.....Any predictions may come soon!!

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The Idealist

  • Thrasymachus
  • Propagating In: Singapore
  • The Critic, The Philosopher, The Pragmatist, The Moralist, The Egalitarian, The Confused, The True-Blue Singaporean
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Poll Your Agony!

    NEW!
    Do you support the government's decision in barring certain Civil Society Organization members from the IMF/WB meetings?
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    Which topic do you wish to read at Singaporegovt?
    SM Goh Chok Tong: Behind the Scene
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    Who is Thrasymachus (aka me)?
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    NEW!
    What do you think of the General Election 2006 (GE) Results?
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    Current results


    NEW!
    What do you think of the Gomez Issue?
    He is guilty of deceiving!
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    Current results


    NEW!
    What do you think of this site (singaporegovt.blogspot)?
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    I HATE this site!
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    Current results


    NEW!
    Which (Senior) Minister of State do you wish to see promoted to Full Minister?
    Ho Peng Kee
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    Heng Chee How
    Lim Hwee Hua
    Grace Fu
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    Gan Kim Yong
    Current results


    Which Election Candidate do you prefer?
    Low Thia Khiang (WP)
    Chiam See Tong (SDA)
    Sylvia Lim (WP)
    Chee Soon Juan (SDP)
    J.B. Jeyaratnam (Formerly WP)
    Lee Hsien Loong (PAP)
    Dr Ng Eng Hen (PAP)
    Sitoh Yih Pin (PAP)
    Eric Low (PAP)
    Current results


    How do you rate PM Lee Hsien Loong's Performance (as Prime Minister) so far?
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    Current results


    Do you have confidence in PM Lee Hsien Loong's leadership and his team of Ministers?
    Yes
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    Too early to tell...
    Any one but them!
    Current results


    Do you think Lee Hsien Loong became Prime Minister on his own merits?
    Yes!
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    No! ("There wasn't any alternative candidate to challenge him in the first place")
    Current results


    Which of the (Junior) Minister to you wish to see him/her step down? (Part III)
    Raymond Lim
    Balaji Sadasivan
    Ho Peng Kee
    Chan Soo Sen
    Lim Hwee Hua
    Heng Chee How
    Gan Kim Yong
    Yu-Foo Yee Shoon
    Zainul Abidin
    Current results


    Which Minister do you wish to see him step down? (Part I)
    Lee Hsien Loong
    Goh Chok Tong
    Lee Kuan Yew
    Lim Boon Heng
    Lee Boon Yang
    Yeo Cheow Tong
    Mah Bow Tan
    George Yeo
    Teo Chee Hean
    Current results


    Which Minister do you wish to see him step down? (Part II)
    Lim Hng Kiang
    Wong Kan Seng
    S Jayakumar
    Tharman Shanmuguratnam
    Lim Swee Say
    Ng Eng Hen
    Vivian Balakrishnan
    Khaw Boon Wan
    Yaacob Ibrahim
    Current results


    What is your utmost concern for the coming General Elections?
    "Bread & Butter" issues - Jobs, economy, salary, etc
    Freedom of Speech - or lack of
    HDB issues - upgrading, high housing cost, etc
    International Issues - govt's handling of foreign relationships
    Transport issues - LTA, NEL, MRT
    Change of Leadership - from SM Goh to PM Lee
    All of the above
    I'll vote any party except PAP!
    I'll only vote for PAP!
    Current results


    Which is your favourite Minister?
    PM Lee Hsien Loong
    SM Goh Chok Tong
    MM Lee Kuan Yew
    DPM Jayakumar
    Dr Vivian Balakrishnan
    Teo Chee Hean
    George Yeo
    Tharman S.
    I Hate of them!
    Current results

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